Friday, May 29, 2020

The Trump Death

Although no one knows what the next two hours may hold today, May 29, looks to be a much better day than was May 28, both for the Case count and the Death count.

WaPo's Cases inchworm inched up May 28. The tail of the dog recently is still clearly down, the seven-day trend line has been downing since April 25. A great suspension bridge anchored at May 23 and 28 spans a deep gorge.



 WaPo and the Johnnies count differently somehow, and it is not always proportional diff-counting, although the two sites' historical bar graphs do have a reassuringly similar look to them. However looking at the right or more recent graph entries WaPo's bar graph has a clear "trough" as I call it for May 26. Hopkins' has no entry that stands out identifiably as a trough but rather a gradual staircase decline whose landing is on May 27, not the 26th. Although almost invariably WaPo undercounts, they did not do so on the 27th. They have 19,180 Cases on May 27 and a clear big step up over the 26th while Hopkins has the recent trend's landing on the 27th with 18.3k cases, a small step down and a difference in one day of almost 900. A 900 Cases difference for one day!







WaPo's seven-day Deaths trend line is, similar to its cases line, clearly down since April 21. I would characterize WaPo's Deaths bar graph as vacillating harmonically between extremes--that's just an extreme bar graph. The seven-day line of course smooths out those extremes but that's a pretty un-smooth road traveled since April 21, one with plenty of bumps and potholes and the line bridges, one, two, three, four...seven deep, narrow gorges. My goodness. There has not been as flat a line on the trend line as that over the last two days, May 27-28.




















It looks very much today that the depressing May 27-28 counts will not change the downward course we have traveled for a month.