I'm too competitive to make a prediction. It changes my values...No, I'm too competitive not to make a prediction. Okay, a little peepy one, one without a whole lot of rationalizing that gets me invested. Just the prediction ma'am. Okay: The seven-day average case line...Well hell, it's been flat-lined for a little while, I'll go with the chalk, more flat-lining. Oh real bold Ben, real bra---Shut up.
Deaths, the seven-day line will be down a smidge.
Okay, now just the facts:
That was an AWESOME prediction. On the less important matter, the line is clearly down since April 25 (April 19-25 inclusive). On the other hand that flat ol’ tail in the May 8-22 period means we have not gotten less sick, that is for gawdern shur. All fifty states were open to one degree or another this week. A lot of orders expired May 1 and weren't renewed so almost all of that is post-open. Now, putting it that way, that's good! Did the experts think cases would skyrocket with reopening? I really don't remember. If they did, they have been proved wrong so far. I do remember that the CDC guidelines called for 14 days of declines before reopening. I wrote that that was untenable. We have never seen more than, I think it was, four consecutive days of decline. So yes, I think it is fair to term that flat line "good" news since reopening...But man, it is hard to consider 23.9k new cases just today, 25.4k cases yesterday, 22.7k on Wednesday as "good." The line was on a steady decline from the period April 19-May 14 inclusive to the but since May 8 it has been on what NYeT mistermed an earlier period, a "stubborn plateau." Well, that's where we are baby, for better or worse, Plateauville. We may not be there long.
Sunday is tomorrow. More, maybe most, places of worship will resume some degree of normal service. Monday is Memorial Day, a big holiday in the U.S., the traditional start to summer and most travel and social distancing restrictions have been lifted. Imperial College of London, the institution that scared Trump straight with its prediction of 2M+ deaths if he let the country just absorb the virus reports today in a study not peer reviewed that twenty four states in the U.S., primarily in the South and Midwest, "have uncontrolled virus spread."
Within any state there are three places where Trump Virus is out of control: jails/prisons, meatpacking plants, and nursing homes. People, more of them unwell than in the general public are in close proximity to one another in enclosed structures, 24/7, and in two of those hot spots, 365. IdjitDJT may be adding a fourth. He has made opening places of worship a top priority. Remember he originally wanted churches open for Easter. Barr has threatened to sue California if Newsom discourages their opening. Now, the one thing missing in churches from those other venues is 24/7 365. Church lasts about an hour, right? Certainly not round the clock and not every day, only on Sunday (or Saturday for Jews or Friday for Muslims). But there's other stuff happening at churches, like singing, reciting, a lot of open mouth stuff, spittle-flying loud talking stuff, turn-around-and-shake-hands-with-everybody-around-you stuff, shaking the preacher's hand when you leave stuff. So it's only an hour or so, not 24, it's only once a week but if that's okay, then why is every goddamned sports league, pro and amateur, around the world still shut down, or playing, like the Bundesliga, in empty venues? Because it's not fucking okay. Yes, unless it's a Miami "Hurricanes" game there are multiples more open mouths more of the time at a sports event than at a church service and rainstorms more spittle. Yes, a sports event lasts longer, two to four hours. Yes, its average frequency is about once a week like worship. On the other hand all but the NBA are played at outdoor venues, and that seems to matter somehow. And the sports going crowd is not as vulnerable a cohort as is the church going crowd, it's younger and healthier. Yet, sports has not reopened anywhere and Trump is not pushing it, he's pushing churches. It's political is the reason. Trump's base base is demanding it. It's not a medicine-based push, it's a political push.
Oki-doki, the seven-day deaths line.
It's a straight line, it is not a smidge down, which was my prediction. We have had a couple of Death Plateaus, one, for the period April 30-May 9, followed by a steep drop. The dog's tail is flat but that in no way counters the downward trend.
Finally, we must needs turn to the Johnnies to get the up to the minute number of notches on Trump's belt and the accuracy of his shootin'.
96,007 Total notches on the morbidly obese Trump's belt. That's more than the entire population of Flint, Michigan.
5.99% And that is the first day Trump's Kill rate has been under 6% in four days. His high was 6.06%.
Deaths, the seven-day line will be down a smidge.
Okay, now just the facts:
Sunday is tomorrow. More, maybe most, places of worship will resume some degree of normal service. Monday is Memorial Day, a big holiday in the U.S., the traditional start to summer and most travel and social distancing restrictions have been lifted. Imperial College of London, the institution that scared Trump straight with its prediction of 2M+ deaths if he let the country just absorb the virus reports today in a study not peer reviewed that twenty four states in the U.S., primarily in the South and Midwest, "have uncontrolled virus spread."
Within any state there are three places where Trump Virus is out of control: jails/prisons, meatpacking plants, and nursing homes. People, more of them unwell than in the general public are in close proximity to one another in enclosed structures, 24/7, and in two of those hot spots, 365. IdjitDJT may be adding a fourth. He has made opening places of worship a top priority. Remember he originally wanted churches open for Easter. Barr has threatened to sue California if Newsom discourages their opening. Now, the one thing missing in churches from those other venues is 24/7 365. Church lasts about an hour, right? Certainly not round the clock and not every day, only on Sunday (or Saturday for Jews or Friday for Muslims). But there's other stuff happening at churches, like singing, reciting, a lot of open mouth stuff, spittle-flying loud talking stuff, turn-around-and-shake-hands-with-everybody-around-you stuff, shaking the preacher's hand when you leave stuff. So it's only an hour or so, not 24, it's only once a week but if that's okay, then why is every goddamned sports league, pro and amateur, around the world still shut down, or playing, like the Bundesliga, in empty venues? Because it's not fucking okay. Yes, unless it's a Miami "Hurricanes" game there are multiples more open mouths more of the time at a sports event than at a church service and rainstorms more spittle. Yes, a sports event lasts longer, two to four hours. Yes, its average frequency is about once a week like worship. On the other hand all but the NBA are played at outdoor venues, and that seems to matter somehow. And the sports going crowd is not as vulnerable a cohort as is the church going crowd, it's younger and healthier. Yet, sports has not reopened anywhere and Trump is not pushing it, he's pushing churches. It's political is the reason. Trump's base base is demanding it. It's not a medicine-based push, it's a political push.
Oki-doki, the seven-day deaths line.
Finally, we must needs turn to the Johnnies to get the up to the minute number of notches on Trump's belt and the accuracy of his shootin'.
96,007 Total notches on the morbidly obese Trump's belt. That's more than the entire population of Flint, Michigan.
5.99% And that is the first day Trump's Kill rate has been under 6% in four days. His high was 6.06%.
