Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Epidemic Trump*

*Updated post time

12:12 a.m. May 27
The Johnnies and Chief WaPo still have their differences. And I have to get past this. I didn't post any of stats yesterday because I didn't know what to do about those discrepancies. Tonight I have decided to post both.

WaPo: a cumulative total of "at least" 1.67M cases of Trump Virus.



The most important statistic always is WaPo's seven-day average line. That "stubborn plateau" of cases has dipped noticeably, albeit slightly, in the last three days of seven-day groupings. The line since about April 25 is unmistakably down, which is tremendous news obviously. It is beyond denial now that we have tamped Trump Virus down considerably and there is no evidence yet of a mid-summer scream.

Hopkins: Cumulative cases total 1.68M. A difference of 8,418 in the cases count between the two sources. That's about half a percentage point, not much.





The Johnnies have the most "artsy" daily cases bars. A left-oriented six-tiered skyscraper most recently; noticeably, but not as drastically low-built a skyscraper as would make us ecstatic. That's not the Empire State Building but it is a good-sized modern skyscraper for a big city, nonetheless. Here, thank God, we have WaPo's seven-day line which shows the cases decline infinitely more clearly than trying to eyeball the trend from Hopkins' bars. WaPo may be right, Hopkins may be overcounting by 8.4k but Hopkins may be right and WaPo is undercounting by 8.4k.



"At least" 97.8k total deaths all-time per WaPo.

WaPo's seven day deaths line is without mitigating qualifier dramatically down since April 21. We have also had five consecutive days of lower daily death counts although you can see in the tail that deaths, like an inchworm, were up, both in the seven-day average and the daily count, thus breaking a five day decline. In my opinion that is of no moment. Look at the line since April 21. That is the most positive graphic depiction of the progress we have made against the Trump Epidemic ever and it is now distorting the whole look of the graph to a spring snow avalanche, ever down and picking up speed as it goes. That's the best damn avalanche I've ever seen.

A couple of days ago I thought we would hit the talismanic 100,000 deaths mark May 26 or 27. It didn't happen the 26th and at the average count of the last three days it will be mid-afternoon Saturday that we hit 100,000. NYeT published last Sunday the names of all the dead under a "100,000 deaths near" headline across all six columns of the front page. They would have been nearer if they had waited until next Sunday.



Hopkins: 98.9k deaths.


A difference of 1,082 from WaPo. That's a more significant difference, it's a 1% difference, double the percent difference in the case counts, and on what should be, has to be, the easier of the two data sets to gather but--what is to be done? If Hopkins is right, at recent averages, we should hit 100,000 Thursday. Significant difference, to reiterate, but I will tell you this: I will go with the first one to report 100,000 and I will stay on Mount Katahdin all damn night if I have to to be the first to catch the sickly rays of that sunrise.