Epidemic Trump, the Tail Wagging the Dog

At least in cases.

May 21 is in the books. The tail of Chief WaPo's cases 7-day average line dipped ever so slightly. Of more concern, it seems to me (or at least to me), is that 7-day average has essentially flat-lined since the period ending May 16, i.e. May 10-16 inclusive. We have not gotten less sick in the period May 10-21, that's for darn sure. WaPo recorded a fresh basket of 25,472 new cases on May 21 alone.


WaPo's 7-day average of Line of Death leveled for a day on May 21 continuing a clear downward trajectory since the 7-day period ending May 9 and beginning May 3. We are not getting less sick but we are clearly not dying as much.

Now we turn to Johns Hopkins for their (supposably) up to the minute raw numbers.

I think it's a little bit misleading to place equal emphasis on the cumulative number of cases we have ever had since the beginning of time as one does on total Deaths. The Johnnies total cases number, and everybody else does this too, includes those infected who recovered, who died, and currently active cases, It is that last, the number of people who are sick right now with Trump Virus that should be emphasized. With Trump's universal Kill percentage, we could then predict with great confidence how many of those currently ill will pass away. Hopkins does post, in a deemphasized sidebar, the number who have recovered, and they do emphasize the number of deaths. It seems to me that if you took the universal number of cases and subtracted out deaths and recoveries you'd have actives, and I did that a couple of times in the past. But I was not confident enough to keep doing that myself. So I am not going to report out the cumulative total cases with the same bolded "largest" type and commensurate city with illustration.

1,577,287 Number of people infected with Trump Virus since the beginning of time.

94,702 Number of people Killed by Donald Trump with Trump Virus. The number of dead exceeds the entire current population of Lynn, Massachusetts. Old mill town, Lynn.

Doesn't it look like an old mill town yes Ben it really does.

6.00% Donald Trump's Killing efficiency. That continues a decline. Trump's bulls-eye rate topped out at 6.06%.  I do feel confident applying the universal 6% mortality rate to the most recent day's cases, May 21. Clearly no people have yet recovered or died the day they were first diagnosed. In a superabundance of conservatism (and in preference to elegant round numbers) we are going to make this 25k even. Thus about 1,500 of those reported as infected on May 21 will eventually die of Trump Virus.