In my once daily venture outside mi casa today I was thinking as I was driving, "We're not going to go back," i.e. if there is a Fall "second wave" of Trump Virus, or if this one keeps sprouting in states that have "re-opened," the American people are not going re-do social distancing. I am certain in my own mind about that but I am unclear in my own mind why I am certain. It's some psychological thing. It brought to mind two other countries experiences. I was much impressed by the thinking of the Swedes. They never considered a lockdown. And they went for something "sustainable." The guy in charge of COVID-19 management in Sweden, whose name I have of course forgotten, made the point that the virus was not going anywhere. Swedes are not going anywhere either so this Swedish guy said Swedes were going to have to "live with" the virus. Now, they have been doing only a comme ci comme ca job of living with the virus, some have rather died of it, but that philosophy logically circled back to a "sustainable" response. The guy...Goddamnit I'm going to have to look up his name, I can't keep calling him that "guy." Une momento por favor...Dr. Anders Tegnell even said that in playing the long game with the virus, "How do you know when to end a lockdown?" Very good question by my friend Dr. Anders Tegnell, one that American governors are asking themselves now, Trump having no fucking idea how to answer the question. Anders invoked "trust" and relied on the sensible Swedes to do the right thing in social distancing. Now, again, ask Anders how that whole trusty thing worked out in Swedish nursing homes, I did not see the Swedish results as so validating that Sweden was a template for other countries, countries who for example had like Trump Low Lifes or Brazilians living among them. Anders claimed that Sweden had not chosen to pursue "herd immunity" but in the same thought welcomed it and predicted that Sweden would have "herd immunity" in about two weeks, and it seems to me it has been about two weeks so I wonder how Sweden is doing. Anyway. the Swedish approach of Dr. Anders Tegnell considered among other things the psychology of hard lockdowns. When to end them and, logically following, what the fuck do you do if you have to do Lockdown, The Sequel? Logically, I believe to a certainty of beyond a reasonable doubt that Dr. Anders Tegnell would say that that would be an impossibility.
Brazil. The Brazilian government applied a lockdown similar to that in the U.S. and in almost every other country. And like the U.S., Brazil has a president who personally ignored his government's own social distancing rules. That cognitive dissonance led large swaths of Brazilians (not as trustworthy nor as sensible as Swedes, more like Trump Low Lifes) to ignore the government's words and follow their president's example (I don't know if Brazilians have tried surgically installing nuclear reactors in their bodies or tried the Clorox Drip) and COVID-19 is now raging throughout Brazil unchecked. Brazil thus is an example of a country where mixed messaging made a lockdown impossible in the first place. What if they tried it now? My learnedness in Brazilian psychology is bounded by one article that I read. Acknowledging that thumbnail intel my distinct impression is that that would go over like a lead balloon.
What if things are, or get, out of control in Sweden? I don't know, like know know but Dr. Tegnell's thinking was that lockdowns were just not something the government was going to do to Swedes. It had less to do, in other words, with the psychology of the Swedish citizenry, that Swedes would go all Brazilian or Trumpian on them. My impression is that the two-way trust level in Sweden is such that if Dr. Tegnell declared hard social distancing and a lockdown tonight that Swedes would do it.
Lessons. COVID-19 response seems to me to be a bit like a one-way street. Your route must be clearly marked and well-lit and you must stay on the road. If you run off the shoulder you're fucked. U-turns are probably impossible. If the road you choose is Lockdown Street you will get one not clearly marked exit, no sure path back to where you were pre-COVID-19, and likely no way of getting back on Lockdown Street again unless you declare martial law. If you choose instead Trust Ave, there are probably no exits.You probably have to stay on Trust and "live with" COVID-19 until, and if, you reach Immunityville or enter Vaccine Nation. You damn better hope trust in your society is two-way for if it becomes necessary to exit Trust and get on Lockdown, trust has exited your society.
Brazil. The Brazilian government applied a lockdown similar to that in the U.S. and in almost every other country. And like the U.S., Brazil has a president who personally ignored his government's own social distancing rules. That cognitive dissonance led large swaths of Brazilians (not as trustworthy nor as sensible as Swedes, more like Trump Low Lifes) to ignore the government's words and follow their president's example (I don't know if Brazilians have tried surgically installing nuclear reactors in their bodies or tried the Clorox Drip) and COVID-19 is now raging throughout Brazil unchecked. Brazil thus is an example of a country where mixed messaging made a lockdown impossible in the first place. What if they tried it now? My learnedness in Brazilian psychology is bounded by one article that I read. Acknowledging that thumbnail intel my distinct impression is that that would go over like a lead balloon.
What if things are, or get, out of control in Sweden? I don't know, like know know but Dr. Tegnell's thinking was that lockdowns were just not something the government was going to do to Swedes. It had less to do, in other words, with the psychology of the Swedish citizenry, that Swedes would go all Brazilian or Trumpian on them. My impression is that the two-way trust level in Sweden is such that if Dr. Tegnell declared hard social distancing and a lockdown tonight that Swedes would do it.
Lessons. COVID-19 response seems to me to be a bit like a one-way street. Your route must be clearly marked and well-lit and you must stay on the road. If you run off the shoulder you're fucked. U-turns are probably impossible. If the road you choose is Lockdown Street you will get one not clearly marked exit, no sure path back to where you were pre-COVID-19, and likely no way of getting back on Lockdown Street again unless you declare martial law. If you choose instead Trust Ave, there are probably no exits.You probably have to stay on Trust and "live with" COVID-19 until, and if, you reach Immunityville or enter Vaccine Nation. You damn better hope trust in your society is two-way for if it becomes necessary to exit Trust and get on Lockdown, trust has exited your society.
